However, the impact of COVID-19 will continue to dampen activity, especially in tourism and retail and wholesale trade. Higher copper prices, the commissioning of a new hydropower station, and a return to normal rainfall patterns are expected to support growth in agriculture and electricity production, key contributors to Zambia’s industry and service sectors. Inflation remained in double digits throughout 2020 - averaging 15.7% - and reached a high of 22.2% in February 2021.Ī gradual recovery is expected, with GDP growth projected at 1.8% in 2021, and will average 2.8% over 2021-23. Overall, the economy is estimated to have contracted by 1.2% in 2020 - the first recession for Zambia since 1998.
However, relaxation of the lockdown measures in the second half and a global pickup of copper prices helped activity to recover. Mining and services suffered from lower global demand and social distancing measures earlier in the year, respectively. Economic activity through Q3 of 2020 contracted by 1.7%, as declines in industry and services outweighed growth in agriculture. The COVID-19 (coronavirus) pandemic pushed into contraction an economy that was already weakened by recent persistent droughts, falling copper prices and unsustainable fiscal policies. The gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate slowed to 3.1% per annum between 20, mainly attributed to falling copper prices and declines in agricultural output and hydro-electric power generation due to insufficient rains, and insufficient policy adjustment to these exogenous shocks. Between 20, the annual real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate averaged 6.8%. This trend is expected to continue as the large youth population enters reproductive age, which will put even more pressure on the demand for jobs, health care and other social services.Īfter 15 years of significant socio-economic progress and achieving middle-income status in 2011, Zambia’s economic performance has stalled in in recent years. Its population, much of it urban, is estimated at about 17.9 million and is growing rapidly at 2.8% per year, partly because of high fertility, resulting in the population doubling close to every 25 years. Zambia is experiencing a large demographic shift and is one of the world’s youngest countries by median age. It shares its border with eight countries (Angola, Botswana, Democratic Republic of Congo, Malawi, Mozambique, Namibia, Tanzania, and Zimbabwe) that serve as an expanded market for its goods. Zambia is a large, landlocked, resource-rich country with sparsely populated land in the center of Southern Africa.